Trat FC 3-4 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Buriram United at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trat FC vs Buriram United encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Trat FC and Buriram United meet at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Trat FC have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Trat FC at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Trat FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Buriram United's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Buriram United away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Buriram United are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Trat FC's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) — Trat FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Buriram United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Buriram United edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Trat FC 0–4 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Trat FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 17 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (last 17 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trat FC 65% versus Buriram United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 71% | Buriram United 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.10 xG and Buriram United 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.834 / defence 1.223 | Buriram United attack 1.075 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.257. Trat FC's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Buriram United's projected output up. Data: built from Trat FC's last 17 games and Buriram United's last 47.

Result probabilities: Trat FC 23% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 48%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 4.27 | Draw 3.52 | Buriram United 2.07. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trat FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 60% (last 10 away games).

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