Port FC 4-3 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Muangthong United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Port FC have won 2, Muangthong United 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 74% and Muangthong United 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 65% | Muangthong United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.58 xG and Muangthong United 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.456 / defence 1.029 | Muangthong United attack 1.001 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.295. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — their λ of 2.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Port FC games / 46 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 63% | Draw 20% | Muangthong United 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Muangthong United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Muangthong United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 63% | Draw 20% | Muangthong United 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG Port FC 2.58 / Muangthong United 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.456 / def 1.029 | Muangthong United attack 1.001 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Port FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Muangthong United xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Port FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Port FC 4 - 3 Muangthong United.
Where is Port FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Port FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 63% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Port FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Muangthong United?
Record (5 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 2W.
What form are Port FC and Muangthong United in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Port FC's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Muangthong United's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.58. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.06
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.91
1.33
Muangthong United xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
8%
13.13
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
1%
76.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Port FC and 1.33 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC's recent record stands at 24W 12D 10L from 46 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 16L across 46 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.83 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 15W 4D 4L from 23 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 9W 4D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.70 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Muangthong United in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 24W 12D 10L in their last 46 games (1.83 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Port FC's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.13 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Port FC or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Muangthong United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Muangthong United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Muangthong United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Port FC at 74%, Muangthong United at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Port FC and 65% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Port FC's games and 65% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Port FC's matches and 65% of Muangthong United's.
Do Port FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Muangthong United 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Muangthong United 4-3 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.58 xG and Muangthong United 1.33 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.46 / defence 1.03 against Muangthong United attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 63% | Draw 20% | Muangthong United 17%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 65%, Muangthong United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.83 PPG, Muangthong United 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.