Nakhon Pathom 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom host Prachuap at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's home record at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium: 3W 2D 3L from 8 Thai League 1 appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nakhon Pathom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Prachuap 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Pathom in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 75% and Prachuap 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 69% | Prachuap 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.32 xG and Prachuap 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.806 / defence 1.142 | Prachuap attack 0.832 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.324. Data: 16 Nakhon Pathom games / 46 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 33%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Prachuap 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 75% | Prachuap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.32 / Prachuap 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.806 / def 1.142 | Prachuap attack 0.832 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Prachuap xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 36% chance of winning, Prachuap a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Prachuap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Pathom's attack rating (0.81) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.28
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.58
1.26
Prachuap xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.26 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 5W 4D 7L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 2W 5D 9L from 16 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nakhon Pathom are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.06 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Prachuap in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Prachuap away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.38 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
3
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Prachuap have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Prachuap 1-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Pathom at 75%, Prachuap at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Nakhon Pathom) and 38% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 62% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 38% of Prachuap's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap finished level at 1-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.32 xG and Prachuap 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Prachuap attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 33%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 69%, Prachuap 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.