Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sevilla at 38%, yet in-form Osasuna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sevilla vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Sevilla welcome Osasuna to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in La Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Sevilla — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Sevilla's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sevilla are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Osasuna away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Osasuna's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sevilla's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Sevilla's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Sevilla have won 0, Osasuna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Sevilla 0–0 Osasuna — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sevilla trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Osasuna trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 60% versus Osasuna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 50% | Osasuna 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.64 xG and Osasuna 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.923 / defence 1.300 | Osasuna attack 1.062 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.188. Osasuna's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sevilla's projected output up. Sevilla's defence rating of 1.300 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Sevilla's last 59 games and Osasuna's last 58.

Result probabilities: Sevilla 38% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 38%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.65 | Draw 4.03 | Osasuna 2.67. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Sevilla 38% and Osasuna 38%, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sevilla's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sevilla 70% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 70% (last 10 away games).

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