Girona 5-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Girona (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Girona face Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sevilla travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona in La Liga (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Girona at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sevilla — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sevilla away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Girona: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Sevilla, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Girona 2–1 Sevilla — a Girona win.
The head-to-head data gives Girona an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sevilla in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 69% and Sevilla 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Sevilla 50%). Note also that Sevilla surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Girona recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.88 xG and Sevilla 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.468 / defence 1.097 | Sevilla attack 0.948 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.162. Girona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.468 — their 1.88 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Girona's last 58 games and Sevilla's last 58.
Result probabilities: Girona 52% | Draw 25% | Sevilla 23%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.93 | Draw 3.97 | Sevilla 4.33. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Girona 50% (last 10 home games) | Sevilla 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 52% | Draw 25% | Sevilla 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Girona 1.88 / Sevilla 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.468 / def 1.097 | Sevilla attack 0.948 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Girona (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sevilla xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Sevilla FAQs
What time does Girona vs Sevilla kick off?
Girona vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Sevilla?
Girona 5 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Girona vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Sevilla part of?
Girona vs Sevilla is a La Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 52% chance of winning, Sevilla a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Girona and Sevilla will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Girona vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Girona's attack at 1.47x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 58 games and Sevilla's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.97
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Girona xG
Total xG
3.09
1.21
Sevilla xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
4%
28.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Sevilla Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Girona and 1.21 for Sevilla, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 28W 14D 16L from 58 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Sevilla, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 25L across 58 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sevilla heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 17W 4D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sevilla's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Sevilla in 60%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
Girona (Home) vs Sevilla (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Girona vs Sevilla Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 28W 14D 16L in their last 58 games (1.69 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 16W 17D 25L in their last 58 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Sevilla away?
Girona's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.96 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2024, when Girona won Girona 5-1 Sevilla.
Girona's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Girona
1
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Sevilla H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Sevilla?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 5, Sevilla have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Girona and Sevilla last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Sevilla 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Sevilla?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 64%, Sevilla 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Girona) and 46% (Sevilla). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Sevilla Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Sevilla matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Girona's games and 57% of Sevilla's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Girona and Sevilla matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Girona's matches and 46% of Sevilla's.
Do Girona and Sevilla matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Girona's recent matches and 64% of Sevilla's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Sevilla.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Sevilla 5-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.88 xG and Sevilla 1.21 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.47 / defence 1.10 against Sevilla attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 52% | Draw 25% | Sevilla 23%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Sevilla 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Sevilla's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Girona (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Sevilla (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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