Osasuna 3-2 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 36%, yet the head-to-head data favours Getafe — this Osasuna vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Getafe at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 21 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Osasuna have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Osasuna have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Getafe — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Getafe have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.60 (Getafe). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Getafe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Osasuna.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Osasuna 2–3 Getafe — a Getafe win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Getafe have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Getafe trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 46% versus Getafe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 39% | Getafe 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.29 xG and Getafe 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.865 / defence 0.953 | Getafe attack 1.173 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.121. Data: built from Osasuna's last 57 games and Getafe's last 57.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Getafe 34%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.80 | Draw 3.31 | Getafe 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osasuna 40% (last 10 home games) | Getafe 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Getafe 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Osasuna 1.29 / Getafe 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.865 / def 0.953 | Getafe attack 1.173 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Getafe xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Getafe FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Getafe kick off?
Osasuna vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Osasuna 3 - 2 Getafe.
Where is Osasuna vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Getafe part of?
Osasuna vs Getafe is a La Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 36% chance of winning, Getafe a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Osasuna and Getafe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.86x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 57 games and Getafe's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.31
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
Getafe xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Getafe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.25 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 21W 12D 24L from 57 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 21L across 57 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.32 PPG, Getafe on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 14W 4D 11L from their last 29 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 4W 11D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.02 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Getafe in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Getafe
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Getafe Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Getafe have gone 16W 20D 21L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Getafe away?
Osasuna's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.59 PPG; Getafe away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Getafe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
2
Draws
5
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Getafe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 3, Getafe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Getafe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Osasuna 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 41%, Getafe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Osasuna) and 45% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 31% of games; Getafe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Getafe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Getafe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Osasuna's recent matches and 48% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Getafe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osasuna's recent games and 45% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Getafe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Osasuna's recent matches and 72% of Getafe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Getafe 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Getafe 3-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.29 xG and Getafe 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Getafe attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Getafe 34%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Getafe 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Getafe 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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