Cadiz 0-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Athletic Club (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cadiz face Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cadiz welcome Athletic Club to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Cadiz — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cadiz's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Athletic Club stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Athletic Club's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Athletic Club's 2.30 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Cadiz's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Athletic Club have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Cadiz.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Cadiz 0–3 Athletic Club — a Athletic Club win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Athletic Club have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Athletic Club trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 39% versus Athletic Club 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 29% | Athletic Club 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.84 xG and Athletic Club 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.758 / defence 1.150 | Athletic Club attack 0.912 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.198. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Cadiz's last 59 games and Athletic Club's last 59.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 45%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.19 | Draw 3.22 | Athletic Club 2.22. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cadiz's last 10 home games and Athletic Club's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cadiz 50% (last 10 home games) | Athletic Club 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Cadiz 0.84 / Athletic Club 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.758 / def 1.150 | Athletic Club attack 0.912 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Athletic Club xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Athletic Club FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Athletic Club kick off?
Cadiz vs Athletic Club kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Cadiz vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Athletic Club part of?
Cadiz vs Athletic Club is a La Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 24% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cadiz and Athletic Club will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Cadiz vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.76x the league average against Athletic Club's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 59 games and Athletic Club's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
24%
4.19
31%
3.22
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.10
1.26
Athletic Club xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Athletic Club Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.26 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 12W 21D 26L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Athletic Club's form line: 26W 14D 19L from 59 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 29 home games (9W 11D 9L).
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 10W 9D 10L from their last 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.44 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
Cadiz (Home) vs Athletic Club (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Cadiz vs Athletic Club Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 21D 26L in their last 59 games (0.97 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 26W 14D 19L in their last 59 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.31 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2022, when Athletic Club won Cadiz 0-4 Athletic Club.
Cadiz's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
4
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Athletic Club H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Athletic Club?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 1, Athletic Club have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Athletic Club last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2024: Cadiz 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 38%, Athletic Club 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Cadiz) and 45% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 41% of games; Athletic Club in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Athletic Club Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Athletic Club matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cadiz's recent matches and 52% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Athletic Club matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cadiz's recent games and 45% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 22, as Cadiz and Athletic Club drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.84 xG and Athletic Club 1.26 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cadiz fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Athletic Club landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Athletic Club attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 45%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 29%, Athletic Club 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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