Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 37%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 05:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Ulsan Hyundai FC — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jeonbuk Motors away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

On current form, Ulsan Hyundai FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2024, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–2 Jeonbuk Motors — a Jeonbuk Motors win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Jeonbuk Motors 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%). Note also that Jeonbuk Motors surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.912 / defence 0.964 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.064 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.301. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 35 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 37%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.73 | Draw 3.84 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.68. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% and Jeonbuk Motors 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Jeonbuk Motors 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Ulsan Hyundai FC 35 games, Jeonbuk Motors 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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