Jeju United FC 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeju United FC face Suwon City FC.

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Fixture Analysis

Jeju United FC welcome Suwon City FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 26 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Jeju United FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Suwon City FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeju United FC at 0.70 PPG versus Suwon City FC's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Jeju United FC have won 2, Suwon City FC 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Jeju United FC 1–2 Suwon City FC — a Suwon City FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Jeju United FC trading profile (last 76 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Suwon City FC trading profile (last 76 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 57% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 54% | Suwon City FC 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeju United FC surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Suwon City FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.23 xG and Suwon City FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.854 / defence 1.041 | Suwon City FC attack 1.074 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.255. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 46 games and Suwon City FC's last 46.

Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.05 | Draw 3.80 | Suwon City FC 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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