Gwangju FC 1-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gwangju FC (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Gwangju FC face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Suwon City FC travel to Gwangju Football Stadium to take on Gwangju FC in K League 1 (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Gwangju FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Suwon City FC stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Gwangju FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Gwangju FC: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Suwon City FC, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Gwangju FC 1–0 Suwon City FC — a Gwangju FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Gwangju FC an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Gwangju FC in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 34% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 26% | Suwon City FC 60%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Gwangju FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.75 xG and Suwon City FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 1.116 / defence 1.190 | Suwon City FC attack 0.929 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.139. Data: built from Gwangju FC's last 40 games and Suwon City FC's last 41.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 46% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.15 | Draw 3.53 | Suwon City FC 3.96. Gwangju FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Gwangju FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging only 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gwangju FC 10% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 46% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Gwangju FC 1.75 / Suwon City FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 1.116 / def 1.190 | Suwon City FC attack 0.929 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Suwon City FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gwangju FC 1 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 46% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (1.12) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gwangju FC's last 40 games and Suwon City FC's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.53
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
3.00
1.26
Suwon City FC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
4%
22.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.26 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 16W 11D 11L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 9W 8D 21L from 38 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Gwangju FC are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 19 home games (9W 4D 6L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 3D 12L from their last 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.29 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 9W 8D 21L in their last 38 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 30 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gwangju FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gwangju FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gwangju FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 November 2025: Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 16%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Gwangju FC) and 63% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 47% of games; Suwon City FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 16% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 63% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 42% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 95% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gwangju FC 1-2 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.75 xG and Suwon City FC 1.26 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.19 against Suwon City FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 46% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 25%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 26%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.