Suwon City FC 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Suwon City FC face Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Suwon City FC welcome Jeju United FC to Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1 (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 07:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Jeju United FC have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon City FC at 0.70 PPG versus Jeju United FC's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Suwon City FC's games and 60% of Jeju United FC's (from Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Suwon City FC, 2 for Jeju United FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Suwon City FC 1–1 Jeju United FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 63% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | Jeju United FC 54%). Note also that Jeju United FC surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Suwon City FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.07 xG and Jeju United FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.830 / defence 1.219 | Jeju United FC attack 0.877 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.151. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jeju United FC's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 40 games and Jeju United FC's last 40.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 30% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Jeju United FC 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 90% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 8 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 30% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.07 / Jeju United FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.830 / def 1.219 | Jeju United FC attack 0.877 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Jeju United FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 8) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 30% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.83) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 40 games and Jeju United FC's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
30%
3.33
32%
3.12
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.23
Jeju United FC xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.23 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 22W 18D 36L from 76 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 31L across 76 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.11 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 13W 9D 16L from their last 38 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 14W 7D 17L across their last 38 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 games (1.11 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeju United FC's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 25 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won Suwon City FC 0-5 Jeju United FC.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2025: Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Suwon City FC and 53% for Jeju United FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Suwon City FC's matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 66% of Jeju United FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.07 xG and Jeju United FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Jeju United FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 30% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 38%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, Jeju United FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.