Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Wehda Club to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al-Ettifaq's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al Wehda Club — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al Wehda Club have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Ettifaq have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al Wehda Club 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 3–2 Al Wehda Club — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 40% versus Al Wehda Club 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 39% | Al Wehda Club 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.908 / defence 0.850 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.730 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.429. Al Wehda Club's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 57 games and Al Wehda Club's last 57.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 46% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.16 | Draw 3.35 | Al Wehda Club 4.20. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Wehda Club 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 46% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.34 / Al Wehda Club 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.908 / def 0.850 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.730 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Wehda Club xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club is a Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 46% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.91x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 57 games and Al Wehda Club's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.35
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.23
0.89
Al Wehda Club xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.89 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 20W 16D 21L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 17W 12D 28L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.33 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 28 home games (12W 8D 8L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 7W 3D 18L from their last 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.18 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al Wehda Club (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 17W 12D 28L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.57 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 26 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
4
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 May 2025: Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al Wehda Club 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ettifaq) and 43% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 43% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 43% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 79% of Al Wehda Club's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.89 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Wehda Club landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.73 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 46% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 24%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 39%, Al Wehda Club 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.33 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.