Al-Fateh 3-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Raed at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fateh and Al-Raed meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 18 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Al-Raed (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al-Raed arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Fateh edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Al-Fateh 2–1 Al-Raed — a Al-Fateh win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 60% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Raed 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.31 xG and Al-Raed 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.960 / defence 1.069 | Al-Raed attack 1.131 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.440. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 57 games and Al-Raed's last 57.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.56 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 2.13. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.31 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 70% (last 10 away games).

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