Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Riyadh to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Riyadh have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 0.90 (Al Riyadh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Riyadh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al Riyadh 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Riyadh winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Al Riyadh 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 35% | Al Riyadh 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.61 xG and Al Riyadh 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.966 / defence 0.879 | Al Riyadh attack 0.666 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.498. Data: 56 Al-Ettifaq games / 26 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al Riyadh 5.00. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Riyadh 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.61 / Al Riyadh 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.966 / def 0.879 | Al Riyadh attack 0.666 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al Riyadh xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 54% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.97) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.87
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.49
0.88
Al Riyadh xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
25.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.88 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 9D 8L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Riyadh sit at 0.96 PPG from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 4W 5D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Riyadh have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (3W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.88 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 9D 8L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 6W 7D 13L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.42 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 67%, Al Riyadh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 67% (Al Riyadh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 58% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 67% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Riyadh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Riyadh 1-0 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.61 xG and Al Riyadh 0.88 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Al Riyadh attack 0.67 / defence 1.20, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 20%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 35%, Al Riyadh 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.