Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm meet at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 25 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 3W 4D 3L at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al-Hazm's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Al-Hazm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Wehda Club, 0 for Al-Hazm and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Wehda Club half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wehda Club 61% and Al-Hazm 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al-Hazm 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 2.35 xG and Al-Hazm 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.174 / defence 1.154 | Al-Hazm attack 0.701 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.416. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Al Wehda Club games / 28 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 64% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hazm 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al Wehda Club (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wehda Club at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 90% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 64% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Wehda Club 2.35 / Al-Hazm 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.174 / def 1.154 | Al-Hazm attack 0.701 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al-Hazm xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 64% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wehda Club 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 1.17x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.70x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.06
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.50
1.15
Al-Hazm xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
10%
10.50
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
2%
63.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.15 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 9W 5D 14L from 28 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 2W 10D 16L across 28 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wehda Club by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Wehda Club have managed 6W 4D 4L from 14 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 0W 7D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.96 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 9W 5D 14L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 10D 16L in their last 28 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.57 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Al Wehda Club, 64% for Al-Hazm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Wehda Club and 50% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Al Wehda Club's games and 64% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 50% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al Wehda Club 0-2 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 2.35 xG and Al-Hazm 1.15 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hazm attack 0.70 / defence 1.41, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 64% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 17%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al-Hazm 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wehda Club arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.