Widzew Łódź 0-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 16:30 UTC.

Current Form

Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Widzew Łódź's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Widzew Łódź 0W, Radomiak Radom 2W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Radomiak Radom 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 46% | Radomiak Radom 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.899 / defence 0.951 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.975 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.180. Data: 50 Widzew Łódź games / 50 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 29%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Widzew Łódź 40% | Radomiak Radom 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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