Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pogon Szczecin welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pogon Szczecin at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 58% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 58% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%). Note also that Zaglebie Lubin surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Pogon Szczecin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.42 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.366 / defence 1.321 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.009 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.171. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack rating of 1.366 — their 2.42 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output up. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 57 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 57.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 55% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 23%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.81 | Draw 4.53 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.38. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.42 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 70% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 55% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.42 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.366 / def 1.321 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.009 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Zaglebie Lubin xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 55% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.37) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 57 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.53
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.98
1.56
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.76
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
9%
11.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
2%
49.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.56 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 57 games, going 29W 13D 15L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.32 PPG from 57 outings (20W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 15W 6D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.07 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 29W 13D 15L in their last 57 games (1.75 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.82 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 5-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 68%, Zaglebie Lubin 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Pogon Szczecin and 61% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 61% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 79% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Pogon Szczecin 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.42 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.56 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.37 / defence 1.32 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 55% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 23%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 58%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.