Widzew Łódź 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to take on Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Legia Warszawa stand at 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Widzew Łódź, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 1–3 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Legia Warszawa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Legia Warszawa 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Widzew Łódź surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Legia Warszawa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.962 / defence 1.153 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.080 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.177. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 57 games and Legia Warszawa's last 57.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.89 | Draw 3.39 | Legia Warszawa 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Widzew Łódź's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 40% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.44 / Legia Warszawa 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.962 / def 1.153 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.080 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Legia Warszawa xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 35% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.96) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 57 games and Legia Warszawa's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.39
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.90
1.47
Legia Warszawa xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.47 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 19W 12D 26L from 57 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 11L across 57 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 11W 3D 14L from their last 28 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 11W 8D 9L across their last 28 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.61 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 19W 12D 26L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 29W 17D 11L in their last 57 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.29 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Legia Warszawa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 50%, Legia Warszawa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Widzew Łódź) and 43% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 32%; Legia Warszawa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 64% of Legia Warszawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Widzew Łódź defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.