Korona Kielce 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow meet at Suzuki Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Suzuki Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Korona Kielce are significantly better at Suzuki Arena than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Korona Kielce, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 59% versus Cracovia Krakow 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Korona Kielce 45% | Cracovia Krakow 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.33 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.118 / defence 1.202 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.754 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.186. Cracovia Krakow's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Korona Kielce games / 57 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 41% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 28%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Korona Kielce at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 70% | Cracovia Krakow 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 41% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Korona Kielce 1.33 / Cracovia Krakow 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.118 / def 1.202 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.754 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cracovia Krakow xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Korona Kielce 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 41% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Korona Kielce 1W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Korona Kielce's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.75x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.22
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.41
1.07
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.07 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 15W 18D 23L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 16W 21D 19L across 56 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.23 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 11W 8D 8L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 5W 11D 11L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Korona Kielce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.21 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 15W 18D 23L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 16W 21D 19L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.52 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
4
Draws
3
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 59%, Cracovia Krakow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Korona Kielce) and 30% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 48% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 30% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.33 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.75 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 41% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 28%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 45%, Cracovia Krakow 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.12 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.