Korona Kielce 2-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzuki Arena plays host to Korona Kielce versus Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 11:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Korona Kielce's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Korona Kielce are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pogon Szczecin's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Korona Kielce 1–3 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 59% versus Pogon Szczecin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 43% | Pogon Szczecin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 0.96 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.030 / defence 1.270 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.248 / defence 0.681. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.143. Pogon Szczecin bring a tight defence (rating 0.681, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Korona Kielce's projected output down. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack rating of 1.248, which lifts their away xG to 1.81. Korona Kielce's defence rating of 1.270 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pogon Szczecin's projected output up. Data: built from Korona Kielce's last 58 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 58.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 18% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 55%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 5.57 | Draw 3.76 | Pogon Szczecin 1.80. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Korona Kielce's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Korona Kielce 70% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 18% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Korona Kielce 0.96 / Pogon Szczecin 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.030 / def 1.270 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.248 / def 0.681 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Pogon Szczecin xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Korona Kielce 2 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 18% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 1.03x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.25x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from Korona Kielce's last 58 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
18%
5.57
27%
3.76
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.78
1.81
Pogon Szczecin xG
5.57
18%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
3%
34.11
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.81 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 19D 24L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.72 PPG from 58 outings (29W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 11W 9D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.69 points per game from their last 29 away games (14W 7D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.74 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Korona Kielce (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Korona Kielce
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 15W 19D 24L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 29W 13D 16L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.45 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Korona Kielce on 20 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Korona Kielce have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 59%, Pogon Szczecin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Korona Kielce) and 45% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 45% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 25, as Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 0.96 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.81 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.03 / defence 1.27 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.25 / defence 0.68, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 18% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 55%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 43%, Pogon Szczecin 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.