Piast Gliwice 0-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 October 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 0, Pogon Szczecin 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 47% versus Pogon Szczecin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 27% | Pogon Szczecin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.916 / defence 0.966 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.244 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.140. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Piast Gliwice games / 45 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 43%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Pogon Szczecin 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Pogon Szczecin 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.05 / Pogon Szczecin 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.916 / def 0.966 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.244 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 27% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (4 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
27%
3.68
30%
3.31
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.42
1.37
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
7%
14.49
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.37 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 16W 15D 14L from 45 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 13L across 45 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.40 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 10W 5D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.76 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 15D 14L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 23W 9D 13L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.36 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 54%, Pogon Szczecin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 54% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.37 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 0.77, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 43%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 27%, Pogon Szczecin 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.40 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.