Radomiak Radom 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Radomiaka Radom plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Radomiak Radom 0W, Korona Kielce 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Korona Kielce winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 39% versus Korona Kielce 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 41% | Korona Kielce 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.49 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.998 / defence 0.983 | Korona Kielce attack 0.971 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.102. Data: 45 Radomiak Radom games / 44 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 25%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Korona Kielce 4.00. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Korona Kielce 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.49 / Korona Kielce 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.998 / def 0.983 | Korona Kielce attack 0.971 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Korona Kielce xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 45% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 0 | Korona Kielce 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.97x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.30
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
Korona Kielce xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.05 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 9D 19L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.16 PPG from 44 outings (13W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.16 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 16W 9D 19L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Korona Kielce away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.24 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 38%, Korona Kielce 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Radomiak Radom) and 57% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 67% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 57% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 12, as Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.49 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Korona Kielce attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 25%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 41%, Korona Kielce 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.