Ruch Chorzów 0-3 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ruch Chorzów welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruch Chorzów stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Ruch Chorzów's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across their last 4 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Ruch Chorzów in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruch Chorzów 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruch Chorzów 50% | Pogon Szczecin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruch Chorzów 1.16 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.894 / defence 1.474 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.208 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.091. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack rating of 1.208, which lifts their away xG to 1.94. Ruch Chorzów's defence rating of 1.474 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pogon Szczecin's projected output up. Data: built from Ruch Chorzów's last 10 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 44.
Result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 21% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 55%. Fair-value odds: Ruch Chorzów 4.66 | Draw 4.18 | Pogon Szczecin 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.16 / 1.94) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ruch Chorzów 50% (last 4 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 21% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Ruch Chorzów 1.16 / Pogon Szczecin 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.894 / def 1.474 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.208 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ruch Chorzów xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin?
Ruch Chorzów 0 - 3 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 11) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Ruch Chorzów a 21% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ruch Chorzów's attack at 0.89x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Ruch Chorzów's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruch Chorzów's last 10 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
21%
4.66
24%
4.18
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ruch Chorzów xG
Total xG
3.10
1.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.66
21%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
14%
6.97
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
3%
32.43
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.94 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruch Chorzów come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 4D 5L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (5W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Ruch Chorzów — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ruch Chorzów's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across their last 4 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 4 away games (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruch Chorzów are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.90 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Ruch Chorzów (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruch Chorzów at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruch Chorzów at home: 1.00 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ruch Chorzów
0
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2024: Pogon Szczecin 5-0 Ruch Chorzów.
Who has won more matches between Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruch Chorzów 50%, Pogon Szczecin 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ruch Chorzów and 25% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruch Chorzów home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 25% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruch Chorzów's recent games and 25% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruch Chorzów and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ruch Chorzów.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Ruch Chorzów 0-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruch Chorzów 1.16 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.94 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ruch Chorzów fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruch Chorzów attack 0.89 / defence 1.47 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruch Chorzów 21% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 55%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruch Chorzów 50%, Pogon Szczecin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.