Warta Poznań 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Warta Poznań take on Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Warta Poznań host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Respect Energy in Ekstraklasa (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Warta Poznań — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Warta Poznań have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Piast Gliwice have recorded 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Warta Poznań at 1.00 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Warta Poznań, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended Warta Poznań 1–1 Piast Gliwice — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 37% versus Piast Gliwice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 28% | Piast Gliwice 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.82 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.745 / defence 0.930 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.816 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.180. Warta Poznań's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Piast Gliwice bring a tight defence (rating 0.727, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Warta Poznań's projected output down. Data: built from Warta Poznań's last 46 games and Piast Gliwice's last 46.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 37% | Piast Gliwice 33%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.40 | Draw 2.69 | Piast Gliwice 2.99. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Warta Poznań's lower xG of 0.82 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Warta Poznań's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 37% | Piast Gliwice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Warta Poznań 0.82 / Piast Gliwice 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.745 / def 0.930 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.816 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Piast Gliwice xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 13) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 29% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Warta Poznań's last 46 games and Piast Gliwice's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.40
37%
2.69
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
1.72
0.90
Piast Gliwice xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 16.1 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 0.90 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 13D 18L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 16W 16D 14L from 46 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.26 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 23 home games (6W 9D 8L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 9D 6L from their last 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.02 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Warta Poznań (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Warta Poznań
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 16D 14L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.17 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Warta Poznań have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2024: Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 44%, Piast Gliwice 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Warta Poznań and 13% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 35%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 39% of games; Piast Gliwice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 39% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 13% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 65% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 13, as Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.82 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.90 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.74 / defence 0.93 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.82 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 37% | Piast Gliwice 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 28%, Piast Gliwice 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.26 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.