Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gornik Zabrze face Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Warta Poznań make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Friday 15 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gornik Zabrze's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Warta Poznań's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Warta Poznań's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.00 for Warta Poznań. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 2 for Warta Poznań and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Gornik Zabrze 0–2 Warta Poznań — a Warta Poznań win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Warta Poznań 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gornik Zabrze 42% | Warta Poznań 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG and Warta Poznań 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.839 / defence 0.750 | Warta Poznań attack 1.102 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.240. Gornik Zabrze have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling Warta Poznań's projected output down. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 52 games and Warta Poznań's last 52.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 31%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.75 | Draw 3.03 | Warta Poznań 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Gornik Zabrze's last 10 home games and Warta Poznań's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 30% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.14 / Warta Poznań 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.839 / def 0.750 | Warta Poznań attack 1.102 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Warta Poznań xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 15 December 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 19) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.84x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (1.10x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 52 games and Warta Poznań's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
36%
2.75
33%
3.03
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.16
1.02
Warta Poznań xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.02 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 14D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.23 PPG from 52 outings (16W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.23 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 10W 7D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.10 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Warta Poznań (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 16W 16D 20L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Warta Poznań away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.48 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 15 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Warta Poznań on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 December 2023: Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 44%, Warta Poznań 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Gornik Zabrze and 32% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 40%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 28% of games; Warta Poznań in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 36% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 32% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 72% of Warta Poznań's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Warta Poznań 3-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG and Warta Poznań 1.02 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.84 / defence 0.75 against Warta Poznań attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 31%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 42%, Warta Poznań 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.37 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.