Piast Gliwice 1-3 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Piast Gliwice face Gornik Zabrze.

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Fixture Analysis

Piast Gliwice welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Piast Gliwice — last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Gornik Zabrze stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Gornik Zabrze have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.50 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Gornik Zabrze 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Piast Gliwice 0–0 Gornik Zabrze — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Gornik Zabrze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 27% | Gornik Zabrze 44%). Note also that Gornik Zabrze surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Piast Gliwice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.44 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.982 / defence 0.806 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.053 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.192. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 52 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 53.

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Gornik Zabrze 26%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.18 | Draw 3.48 | Gornik Zabrze 3.92. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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