Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 December 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Warta Poznań have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Pogon Szczecin's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Warta Poznań managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The historical record gives Pogon Szczecin a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 57% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 57% | Warta Poznań 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.58 xG and Warta Poznań 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.298 / defence 1.165 | Warta Poznań attack 0.982 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.254. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Pogon Szczecin games / 51 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 39% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Warta Poznań 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Warta Poznań 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 39% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.58 / Warta Poznań 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.298 / def 1.165 | Warta Poznań attack 0.982 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Warta Poznań xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 3 Warta Poznań.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 39% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
Record (5 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 2 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.98x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.62
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.01
1.44
Warta Poznań xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.44 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 25W 11D 15L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań's form line: 16W 15D 20L from 51 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (13W 5D 7L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 10W 5D 10L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.06 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 11D 15L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 16W 15D 20L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Warta Poznań away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.76 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
0
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 64%, Warta Poznań 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Pogon Szczecin) and 28% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 40%; Warta Poznań in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 32% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 28% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 18, as Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.58 xG and Warta Poznań 1.44 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.30 / defence 1.17 against Warta Poznań attack 0.98 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 39% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 57%, Warta Poznań 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.