Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Radomiak Radom take on Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Radomiaka Radom to take on Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Radomiak Radom's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lech Poznan have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Lech Poznan have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Radomiak Radom) versus 1.50 (Lech Poznan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Lech Poznan 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Radomiak Radom 0–2 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 40% versus Lech Poznan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 38% | Lech Poznan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.01 xG and Lech Poznan 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.816 / defence 0.892 | Lech Poznan attack 0.840 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.255. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 52 games and Lech Poznan's last 52.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.90 | Draw 2.88 | Lech Poznan 3.24. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.01 / Lech Poznan 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.816 / def 0.892 | Lech Poznan attack 0.840 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lech Poznan xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 2 Lech Poznan.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 19) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 34% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.82x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 52 games and Lech Poznan's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.90
35%
2.88
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
1.95
0.94
Lech Poznan xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.94 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 13D 21L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 26W 15D 11L from 52 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Venue Form
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 25 home games (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 11W 11D 3L from their last 25 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.12 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lech Poznan have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2026, when Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
6
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 40%, Lech Poznan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Radomiak Radom) and 48% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 40%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 56% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 48% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 68% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 19, as Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.01 xG and Lech Poznan 0.94 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lech Poznan outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Lech Poznan attack 0.84 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Lech Poznan 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.