Almere City FC 1-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Heerenveen travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Heerenveen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 0.90 PPG versus Heerenveen's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Almere City FC have won 0, Heerenveen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Heerenveen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Heerenveen trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 45% | Heerenveen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.17 xG and Heerenveen 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.702 / defence 1.113 | Heerenveen attack 1.014 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.427. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Almere City FC games / 65 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 46%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Heerenveen 2.17. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 50% | Heerenveen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Almere City FC 1.17 / Heerenveen 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.702 / def 1.113 | Heerenveen attack 1.014 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Heerenveen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Heerenveen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is Almere City FC vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Heerenveen part of?
Almere City FC vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 26% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Almere City FC and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heerenveen?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Heerenveen 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Heerenveen in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
26%
3.83
28%
3.56
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.61
Heerenveen xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
19.16
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.61 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 28W 20D 19L from 67 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 29L across 67 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.55 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 13W 10D 10L from 33 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.42 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 28W 20D 19L in their last 67 games (1.55 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 22W 16D 29L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Heerenveen away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.48 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Heerenveen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heerenveen?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Heerenveen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Heerenveen 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 58%, Heerenveen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Almere City FC) and 54% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Heerenveen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 42% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Almere City FC's recent games and 54% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and Heerenveen finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.17 xG and Heerenveen 1.61 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against Heerenveen attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 26% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 46%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 45%, Heerenveen 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Heerenveen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.55 PPG, Heerenveen 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.