Almere City FC 1-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heerenveen travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Almere City FC stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Almere City FC have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Heerenveen have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Heerenveen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 0.90 PPG versus Heerenveen's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Almere City FC have won 0, Heerenveen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended Almere City FC 0–3 Heerenveen — a Heerenveen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Heerenveen trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 45% | Heerenveen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.17 xG and Heerenveen 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.702 / defence 1.113 | Heerenveen attack 1.014 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.427. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 31 games and Heerenveen's last 65.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 46%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.83 | Draw 3.56 | Heerenveen 2.18. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 32 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Almere City FC 1.17 / Heerenveen 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.702 / def 1.113 | Heerenveen attack 1.014 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Heerenveen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs Heerenveen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Heerenveen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is Almere City FC vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Heerenveen part of?
Almere City FC vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 32) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 26% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Almere City FC and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 31 games and Heerenveen's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
26%
3.83
28%
3.56
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.61
Heerenveen xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
19.16
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.61 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 28W 20D 19L from 67 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 29L across 67 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.55 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 13W 10D 10L from their last 33 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across their last 33 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.42 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
Almere City FC (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 28W 20D 19L in their last 67 games (1.55 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 22W 16D 29L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Heerenveen away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.48 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2023, when Heerenveen won Heerenveen 3-0 Almere City FC.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heerenveen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 1, Heerenveen have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Heerenveen 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 58%, Heerenveen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Almere City FC) and 54% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Heerenveen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 42% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Almere City FC and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Almere City FC's recent games and 54% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 67% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and Heerenveen finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.17 xG and Heerenveen 1.61 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against Heerenveen attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 26% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 46%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 45%, Heerenveen 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Heerenveen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.55 PPG, Heerenveen 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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