Twente 3-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Twente vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Grolsch Veste plays host to Twente versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 31). Kick-off: Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time.
Form
Twente (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Twente at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Almere City FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Twente's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Twente edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Twente 4–1 Almere City FC — a Twente win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Twente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Twente 44% versus Almere City FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Twente 59% | Almere City FC 44%). Note also that Almere City FC surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Twente recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Twente 1.61 xG and Almere City FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Twente attack 1.053 / defence 0.733 | Almere City FC attack 0.699 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.350. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Twente have a tight defence (rating 0.733), which is pulling Almere City FC's projected output down. Data: built from Twente's last 64 games and Almere City FC's last 30.
Result probabilities: Twente 57% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Twente 1.74 | Draw 3.48 | Almere City FC 7.21. The model has a clear lean to Twente (57%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Twente as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Twente 40% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Twente vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 31 | Venue: De Grolsch Veste • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Twente 57% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Twente 1.61 / Almere City FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Twente attack 1.053 / def 0.733 | Almere City FC attack 0.699 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Twente (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Twente xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Almere City FC xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Twente vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Twente vs Almere City FC kick off?
Twente vs Almere City FC kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at De Grolsch Veste.
What was the final score in Twente vs Almere City FC?
Twente 3 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Twente vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Grolsch Veste.
What competition is Twente vs Almere City FC part of?
Twente vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Twente vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Twente a 57% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Twente vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Twente and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Twente vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Twente's attack rating (1.05) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.70x) against Twente's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from Twente's last 64 games and Almere City FC's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
57%
1.74
29%
3.48
14%
7.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Twente xG
Total xG
2.30
0.69
Almere City FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
7.21
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
35.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Twente vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Twente vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Twente and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Twente and 0.69 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Twente vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Twente's recent record stands at 39W 17D 12L from 68 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 29W 21D 18L across 68 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for Twente against 1.59 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Twente have managed 27W 5D 2L from their last 34 home games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Twente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 16W 10D 8L across their last 34 away games, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Twente are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Twente have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Almere City FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Twente
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
Twente (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Twente
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Twente vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Twente and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Twente have gone 39W 17D 12L in their last 68 games (1.97 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 29W 21D 18L in their last 68 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Twente at home or Almere City FC away?
Twente's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Twente at home: 2.53 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Twente or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Twente have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Twente have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Twente won Almere City FC 0-5 Twente on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Twente have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Twente
0
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Twente vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Almere City FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Twente have won 4, Almere City FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Twente and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Twente 1-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Twente and Almere City FC?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Twente 41%, Almere City FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Twente) and 35% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Twente keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Almere City FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Twente home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Twente vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Twente and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Twente's recent matches and 47% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Twente and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Twente's recent games and 35% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Twente and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Twente's recent matches and 74% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Twente cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Almere City FC 3-1 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.61 xG and Almere City FC 0.69 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Twente beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.05 / defence 0.73 against Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 0.88, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Twente 57% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 14%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 59%, Almere City FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Twente's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Twente 1.97 PPG, Almere City FC 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Twente win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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