Heracles 0-5 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as Heracles welcome Waalwijk to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Erve Asito this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 1.00 PPG versus Waalwijk's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Heracles, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Heracles winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus Waalwijk 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 71% | Waalwijk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.94 xG and Waalwijk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.005 / defence 1.212 | Waalwijk attack 0.814 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.412. Data: 31 Heracles games / 65 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Waalwijk 3.85. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 40% | Waalwijk 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Heracles 1.94 / Waalwijk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.005 / def 1.212 | Waalwijk attack 0.814 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Heracles (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Waalwijk xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Waalwijk kick off?
Heracles vs Waalwijk kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Heracles 0 - 5 Waalwijk.
Where is Heracles vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Waalwijk part of?
Heracles vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 49% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.92
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.33
1.39
Waalwijk xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Heracles and 1.39 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 65 games, going 33W 8D 24L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.02 PPG from 65 outings (17W 15D 33L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Heracles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 20W 5D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.59 points per game from 32 outings (4W 7D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.25 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 33W 8D 24L in their last 65 games (1.65 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 15D 33L in their last 65 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Waalwijk away?
Heracles's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.03 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 53%, Waalwijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Heracles and 56% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Waalwijk in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Heracles's recent matches and 50% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Heracles's matches and 56% of Waalwijk's.
Do Heracles and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Heracles 0-5 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.94 xG and Waalwijk 1.39 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Waalwijk outscored their 1.39 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against Waalwijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 26%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 71%, Waalwijk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.