Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host NEC Nijmegen at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NEC Nijmegen — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NEC Nijmegen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Excelsior, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 4–3 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 55% versus NEC Nijmegen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 66% | NEC Nijmegen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.44 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.936 / defence 0.972 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.163 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.446. Data: 65 Excelsior games / 65 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 32% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 41%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | NEC Nijmegen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | NEC Nijmegen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 32% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Excelsior 1.44 / NEC Nijmegen 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.936 / def 0.972 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.163 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.64
NEC Nijmegen xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 May 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Excelsior 0 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 32% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.94) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.66
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.08
1.64
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
6%
15.97
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.64 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior's recent record stands at 14W 16D 35L from 65 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 20W 26D 19L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 11W 9D 12L from 32 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 9W 13D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.55 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 14W 16D 35L in their last 65 games (0.89 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 20W 26D 19L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Excelsior's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.31 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
1
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 56%, NEC Nijmegen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Excelsior) and 47% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 28% of games; NEC Nijmegen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Excelsior's recent matches and 47% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Excelsior's recent games and 47% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Excelsior 0-3 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.44 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.64 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.4 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 32% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 41%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 66%, NEC Nijmegen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.