Ionikos 0-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ionikos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ionikos host Volos NFC at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off is Monday 16 January 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Ionikos — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Ionikos at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ionikos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Volos NFC have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Volos NFC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Ionikos, 1 for Volos NFC and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2022, ended Ionikos 0–2 Volos NFC — a Volos NFC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 52% versus Volos NFC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 46% | Volos NFC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.91 xG and Volos NFC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.834 / defence 1.266 | Volos NFC attack 0.978 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.020. Ionikos's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Data: built from Ionikos's last 43 games and Volos NFC's last 43.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 23% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 41%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 4.34 | Draw 2.75 | Volos NFC 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Volos NFC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ionikos 70% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Monday 16 January 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 23% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Ionikos 0.91 / Volos NFC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.834 / def 1.266 | Volos NFC attack 0.978 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Volos NFC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ionikos vs Volos NFC FAQs
What time does Ionikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Ionikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 16 January 2023 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Ionikos 0 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Ionikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Ionikos vs Volos NFC is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 18) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 23% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 41% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ionikos and Volos NFC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Ionikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ionikos's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ionikos's last 43 games and Volos NFC's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
23%
4.34
36%
2.75
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.18
1.26
Volos NFC xG
4.34
23%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ionikos vs Volos NFC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.26 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Ionikos have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 13W 14D 23L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Volos NFC's form line: 17W 15D 18L from 50 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ionikos on 1.06 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ionikos have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 24 home games (6W 10D 8L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 11D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ionikos are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.36 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
Ionikos (Home) vs Volos NFC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ionikos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Ionikos vs Volos NFC Form FAQs
What form are Ionikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Volos NFC's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.17 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 January 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Ionikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ionikos
3
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ionikos vs Volos NFC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Volos NFC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Ionikos have won 0, Volos NFC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 January 2023: Ionikos 0-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 58%, Volos NFC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ionikos) and 54% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ionikos vs Volos NFC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ionikos and Volos NFC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ionikos's games and 62% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ionikos and Volos NFC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ionikos's recent games and 54% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Volos NFC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Ionikos's recent matches and 67% of Volos NFC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Ionikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Ionikos 0-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.91 xG and Volos NFC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ionikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Volos NFC attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 23% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 41%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 46%, Volos NFC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.06 PPG, Volos NFC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.