PAOK 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host OFI at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAOK, 0 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 46% versus OFI 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 42% | OFI 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.39 xG and OFI 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.150 / defence 0.811 | OFI attack 1.247 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.057. OFI have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 PAOK games / 43 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 40% | Draw 34% | OFI 25%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | OFI 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 30% | OFI 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 40% | Draw 34% | OFI 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG PAOK 1.39 / OFI 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.150 / def 0.811 | OFI attack 1.247 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: PAOK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.07
OFI xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs OFI kick off?
PAOK vs OFI kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs OFI?
PAOK 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is PAOK vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs OFI part of?
PAOK vs OFI is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 40% chance of winning, OFI a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAOK and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
Record (3 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 1 | OFI 0W.
What form are PAOK and OFI in?
PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. OFI (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.15) and OFI's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
40%
2.47
34%
2.90
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.46
1.07
OFI xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are PAOK and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for PAOK and 1.07 for OFI, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 12D 11L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.18 PPG from 50 outings (14W 17D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 15W 5D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (7W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.10 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and OFI in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 27W 12D 11L in their last 50 games (1.86 PPG), while OFI have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or OFI away?
PAOK's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.08 PPG; OFI away: 1.25 PPG.
Have PAOK or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, OFI in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PAOK
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and OFI?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 50%, OFI 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PAOK) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; OFI in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAOK's recent matches and 46% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PAOK's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and OFI tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAOK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 18, as PAOK and OFI drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.39 xG and OFI 1.07 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAOK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. OFI landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.15 / defence 0.81 against OFI attack 1.25 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 40% | Draw 34% | OFI 25%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 42%, OFI 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.