PAS Giannina 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAS Giannina face Panathinaikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Panathinaikos travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina at Stadio Zosimades this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Panathinaikos are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAS Giannina, 3 for Panathinaikos and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Panathinaikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 43% versus Panathinaikos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 43% | Panathinaikos 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.04 xG and Panathinaikos 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.179 / defence 1.364 | Panathinaikos attack 1.123 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.027. Panathinaikos's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 PAS Giannina games / 43 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 21% | Draw 32% | Panathinaikos 46%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Panathinaikos 2.17. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 70% | Panathinaikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 21% | Draw 32% | Panathinaikos 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG PAS Giannina 1.04 / Panathinaikos 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.179 / def 1.364 | Panathinaikos attack 1.123 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Panathinaikos xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
PAS Giannina 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 21% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
Record (5 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 3W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (1.18) and Panathinaikos's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
21%
4.66
32%
3.08
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.61
1.57
Panathinaikos xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
4%
22.44
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.57 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, PAS Giannina have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 15D 22L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos's form line: 31W 10D 12L from 53 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAS Giannina.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAS Giannina have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 11W 5D 10L from 26 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.49 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 31W 10D 12L in their last 53 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panathinaikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.58 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.46 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2024, when Panathinaikos 2-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 58%, Panathinaikos 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (PAS Giannina) and 35% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 42%; Panathinaikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 35% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 35% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out PAS Giannina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat PAS Giannina 0-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.04 xG and Panathinaikos 1.57 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAS Giannina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.18 / defence 1.36 against Panathinaikos attack 1.12 / defence 0.73, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 21% | Draw 32% | Panathinaikos 46%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 43%, Panathinaikos 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.