Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 January 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.50 PPG, Volos NFC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Volos NFC trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 29% versus Volos NFC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 37% | Volos NFC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.27 xG and Volos NFC 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.276 / defence 0.756 | Volos NFC attack 0.968 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.000. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Aris Thessalonikis games / 44 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 35% | Volos NFC 18%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Volos NFC 5.56. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Volos NFC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 35% | Volos NFC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.27 / Volos NFC 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.276 / def 0.756 | Volos NFC attack 0.968 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Volos NFC xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 46% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.28) and Volos NFC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
46%
2.17
35%
2.82
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.00
0.73
Volos NFC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
5%
19.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.73 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 25W 11D 15L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 18W 15D 18L from 51 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.69 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (14W 7D 4L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 7W 11D 7L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.35 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 25W 11D 15L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 18W 15D 18L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Volos NFC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.96 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Volos NFC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 28%, Volos NFC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 52% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Volos NFC in 32%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 60% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 52% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 3-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.27 xG and Volos NFC 0.73 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.28 / defence 0.76 against Volos NFC attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 35% | Volos NFC 18%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 37%, Volos NFC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.69 PPG, Volos NFC 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.