SC Paderborn 07 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face 1. FC Nürnberg.

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Full Analysis

Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

SC Paderborn 07 at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.70 for 1. FC Nürnberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 0–1 1. FC Nürnberg — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 63% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 74% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Paderborn 07 surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while 1. FC Nürnberg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.18 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.102 / defence 1.044 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.006 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.349. 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Paderborn 07's projected output up. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 46 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 46.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 54% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Nürnberg 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.87 | Draw 4.30 | 1. FC Nürnberg 4.31. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.18 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% (last 10 away games).

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