SV Elversberg 4-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 48%, yet in-form SV Elversberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as SV Elversberg welcome SC Paderborn 07 to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's home record at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde: 2W 1D 3L from 6 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.17 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde this season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 62% and SC Paderborn 07 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 62% | SC Paderborn 07 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.30 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.819 / defence 1.203 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.083 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.391. Data: 13 SV Elversberg games / 47 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 48%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | SC Paderborn 07 2.08. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Elversberg (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 50% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG SV Elversberg 1.30 / SC Paderborn 07 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.819 / def 1.203 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.083 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.81
SC Paderborn 07 xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Elversberg 4 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 26% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
26%
3.80
25%
3.95
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.11
1.81
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
4%
23.24
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.81 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 6W 3D 4L from 13 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 5L across 13 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.62 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.62 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 85%.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.17 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Elversberg at 50%, SC Paderborn 07 at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SV Elversberg and 83% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SV Elversberg's games and 83% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SV Elversberg's matches and 83% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SC Paderborn 07 4-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.30 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.81 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Paderborn 07 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.82 / defence 1.20 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 48%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 62%, SC Paderborn 07 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.62 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.