1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MDCC-Arena plays host to 1. FC Magdeburg versus Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's home record at MDCC-Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at MDCC-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 0.70 for Hansa Rostock — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1 for Hansa Rostock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 63% versus Hansa Rostock 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 63% | Hansa Rostock 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.68 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.089 / defence 1.113 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.685 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.385. Data: 46 1. FC Magdeburg games / 46 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 22%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Hansa Rostock 4.55. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 80% | Hansa Rostock 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.68 / Hansa Rostock 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.089 / def 1.113 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.685 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Hansa Rostock xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 2 Hansa Rostock.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 50% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 1W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.69x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.61
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.73
1.06
Hansa Rostock xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
4%
24.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.06 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 15W 11D 20L from 46 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 24L across 46 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.17 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.93 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 16W 6D 24L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Hansa Rostock away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.36 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Hansa Rostock 0-2 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 64%, Hansa Rostock 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 41% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 32% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 41% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hansa Rostock defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.68 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.06 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hansa Rostock outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.69 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 22%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Hansa Rostock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 63%, Hansa Rostock 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.22 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.