FC St. Pauli 0-0 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC St. Pauli face Hannover 96.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hannover 96 make the trip to Millerntor-Stadion to face FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Friday 10 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
FC St. Pauli's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC St. Pauli have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hannover 96 have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hannover 96 have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.90 for Hannover 96. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of FC St. Pauli's games and 100% of Hannover 96's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for FC St. Pauli, 2 for Hannover 96 and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended FC St. Pauli 2–0 Hannover 96 — a FC St. Pauli win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 54% versus Hannover 96 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 54% | Hannover 96 61%). Note also that Hannover 96 surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while FC St. Pauli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.30 xG and Hannover 96 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.270 / defence 0.748 | Hannover 96 attack 1.084 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.355. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack rating of 1.270 — their 2.30 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC St. Pauli have a tight defence (rating 0.748), which is pulling Hannover 96's projected output down. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 46 games and Hannover 96's last 46.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 63% | Draw 21% | Hannover 96 16%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.59 | Draw 4.72 | Hannover 96 6.35. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.30 / 1.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 70% (last 10 home games) | Hannover 96 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 63% | Draw 21% | Hannover 96 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG FC St. Pauli 2.30 / Hannover 96 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.270 / def 0.748 | Hannover 96 attack 1.084 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Hannover 96 xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 10 November 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 0 Hannover 96.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 63% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.27x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (1.08x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 46 games and Hannover 96's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.72
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.40
1.10
Hannover 96 xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
10%
9.93
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
2%
63.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.10 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 23W 15D 8L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Hannover 96's form line: 18W 11D 17L from 46 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hannover 96.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.09 PPG from their last 23 home games (13W 9D 1L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 6W 7D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.65 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 in 65%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs Hannover 96 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 23W 15D 8L in their last 46 games (1.83 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Hannover 96 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.09 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.09 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hannover 96 won FC St. Pauli 0-3 Hannover 96 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 2, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Hannover 96 1-1 FC St. Pauli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 52%, Hannover 96 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FC St. Pauli) and 61% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC St. Pauli's games and 74% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 61% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 83% of Hannover 96's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC St. Pauli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and Hannover 96 finished level at 0-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.30 xG and Hannover 96 1.10 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Hannover 96 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.27 / defence 0.75 against Hannover 96 attack 1.08 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 63% | Draw 21% | Hannover 96 16%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 54%, Hannover 96 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hannover 96's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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