1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Kaiserslautern host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's (from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 2 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–4 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Kaiserslautern trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 63% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Kaiserslautern 65% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Kaiserslautern surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.55 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.015 / defence 1.355 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.529 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.382. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack rating of 1.529, which lifts their away xG to 2.86. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence rating of 1.355 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 60 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 60.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 19% | Draw 16% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 65%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5.34 | Draw 6.07 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 4.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (1.55 / 2.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 70% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 19% | Draw 16% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% (Under 18%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.55 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.86 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.015 / def 1.355 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.529 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
2.86
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
74%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 - 3 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 19% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 65% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack at 1.01x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence, projects 2.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 60 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
19%
5.34
16%
6.07
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
2 – 2
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
4.41
2.86
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
5.34
19%
Home win
6.07
16%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
6%
17.53
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
1%
93.60
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 2.86 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 4.41.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Kaiserslautern come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 17D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.68 PPG from 60 outings (29W 14D 17L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of 1. FC Kaiserslautern — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 7D 11L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.93 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.43 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 May 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 67%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 63% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have failed to score in 27% of games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 63% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent matches and 73% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-3 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.55 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.86 xG, a combined 4.41. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.01 / defence 1.35 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.53 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 19% | Draw 16% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 65%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 65%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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