České Budějovice 2-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Zlin at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: České Budějovice 0.70 PPG, Zlin 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, České Budějovice have won 0, Zlin 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
České Budějovice trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Zlin trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 51% versus Zlin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Zlin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.95 xG and Zlin 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.037 / defence 0.957 | Zlin attack 0.814 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.226. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 České Budějovice games / 53 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 60% | Draw 23% | Zlin 17%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to České Budějovice (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 40% | Zlin 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 60% | Draw 23% | Zlin 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG České Budějovice 1.95 / Zlin 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.037 / def 0.957 | Zlin attack 0.814 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zlin xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Zlin kick off?
České Budějovice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Zlin?
České Budějovice 2 - 2 Zlin.
Where is České Budějovice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Zlin part of?
České Budějovice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 60% chance of winning, Zlin a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both České Budějovice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Zlin?
Record (5 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 3 | Zlin 2W.
What form are České Budějovice and Zlin in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.04x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.37
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.91
0.95
Zlin xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
2%
41.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.95 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 16W 7D 32L from 55 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 12W 17D 26L across 55 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: České Budějovice on 1.00 PPG, Zlin on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 12W 2D 13L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 9D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.20 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Zlin in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 16W 7D 32L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while Zlin have gone 12W 17D 26L in their last 55 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Zlin away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.41 PPG; Zlin away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Zlin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
5
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Zlin?
From 7 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Zlin have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Zlin 1-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 44%, Zlin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for České Budějovice and 59% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 37% of games; Zlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 56% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of České Budějovice's matches and 59% of Zlin's.
Do České Budějovice and Zlin tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Zlin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice and Zlin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 24, as České Budějovice and Zlin drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.95 xG and Zlin 0.95 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Zlin outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Zlin attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 60% | Draw 23% | Zlin 17%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 64%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.00 PPG, Zlin 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.