Slovácko 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Slovácko welcome FK Jablonec to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Slovácko) versus 1.40 (FK Jablonec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slovácko, 2 for FK Jablonec and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 47% versus FK Jablonec 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 45% | FK Jablonec 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.97 xG and FK Jablonec 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.041 / defence 1.076 | FK Jablonec attack 1.192 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.266. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Slovácko games / 53 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 45% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 31%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | FK Jablonec 3.23. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 50% | FK Jablonec 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 45% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Slovácko 1.97 / FK Jablonec 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.041 / def 1.076 | FK Jablonec attack 1.192 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.62
FK Jablonec xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Slovácko 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 45% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Slovácko and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
Record (4 meetings): Slovácko 1W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 2W.
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in?
Slovácko (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (1.04) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.18
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.59
1.62
FK Jablonec xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
4%
23.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Slovácko and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.62 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 16D 18L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.12 PPG from 58 outings (15W 20D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.52 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Slovácko's home form reads 14W 8D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (5W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.36 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 games (1.52 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 15W 20D 23L in their last 58 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovácko's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.72 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Slovácko or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slovácko's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovácko
3
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 45%, FK Jablonec 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Slovácko) and 62% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Slovácko's recent matches and 62% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Slovácko's recent games and 62% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Slovácko 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Slovácko 0-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.97 xG and FK Jablonec 1.62 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against FK Jablonec attack 1.19 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 45% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 31%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 45%, FK Jablonec 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.52 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.