Zlin 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bohemians 1905 travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zlin 0.90 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bohemians 1905 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zlin, 3 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 63% versus Bohemians 1905 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 59% | Bohemians 1905 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.83 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.042 / defence 1.147 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.069 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.205. Data: 54 Zlin games / 54 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 45% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 31%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 3.23. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 80% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 45% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Zlin 1.83 / Bohemians 1905 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.042 / def 1.147 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.069 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Zlin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Bohemians 1905 xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Zlin 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 45% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Zlin and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Record (5 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
45%
2.20
24%
4.18
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.31
1.48
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Zlin and 1.48 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin come into this having played 59 games, going 12W 20D 27L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (21W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.95 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zlin's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.29 points per game from 28 outings (10W 6D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.29 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 12W 20D 27L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zlin's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.36 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Zlin or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
7
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 71%, Bohemians 1905 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Zlin) and 57% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Zlin's games and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Zlin's matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zlin and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 25, as Zlin and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.83 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.48 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 45% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 31%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 59%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.95 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.