Baník Ostrava 1-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sigma Olomouc travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Baník Ostrava, 1 for Sigma Olomouc and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Baník Ostrava 3–0 Sigma Olomouc — a Baník Ostrava win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 57% versus Sigma Olomouc 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 55% | Sigma Olomouc 55%). Note also that Sigma Olomouc surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Baník Ostrava recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.33 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.847 / defence 0.898 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.839 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 53 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 53.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 25%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.20 | Draw 3.36 | Sigma Olomouc 4.04. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.33 / Sigma Olomouc 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.847 / def 0.898 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.839 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sigma Olomouc xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 46% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 53 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
46%
2.20
30%
3.36
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.25
0.91
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.91 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 13D 24L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.34 PPG from 58 outings (20W 18D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.31 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 12W 4D 13L across their last 29 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.34 points per game from their last 29 away games (10W 9D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 21W 13D 24L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.38 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won Baník Ostrava 0-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 52%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Baník Ostrava) and 45% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 79% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Baník Ostrava 1-2 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.33 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 25%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 55%, Sigma Olomouc 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.31 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.