SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 77%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Hangzhou Greentown in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SHANGHAI SIPG lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 51% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.96 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.497 / defence 0.928 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.758 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.406. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.497 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hangzhou Greentown bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 46 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Draw 14% | Hangzhou Greentown 9%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Hangzhou Greentown 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.96 / 0.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 77% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Draw 14% | Hangzhou Greentown 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 60% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.96 / Hangzhou Greentown 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.497 / def 0.928 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.758 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Hangzhou Greentown xG
60%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 29 June 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 77% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (5 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.50) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.76x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 3-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
77%
1.30
14%
7.16
9%
10.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.94
0.99
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.16
14%
Draw
10.87
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
5%
19.22
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.99 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 39W 11D 13L from 63 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 33W 18D 12L across 63 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.03 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.86 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 19W 6D 6L from 31 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 14W 12D 5L across 31 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 0.98 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's scoring rate against Hangzhou Greentown's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 13L in their last 63 games (2.03 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.03 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.74 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 55%, Hangzhou Greentown 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 61% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 74% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 61% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.96 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.99 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.50 / defence 0.93 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Draw 14% | Hangzhou Greentown 9%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Hangzhou Greentown 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 2.03 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.