Hangzhou Greentown 4-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hangzhou Greentown face Meizhou Kejia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Meizhou Kejia travel to Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 July 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Hangzhou Greentown have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Hangzhou Greentown hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Meizhou Kejia, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The historical record gives Hangzhou Greentown a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 62% and Meizhou Kejia 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 74% | Meizhou Kejia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.98 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.319 / defence 0.927 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.833 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.353. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Hangzhou Greentown games / 47 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 22% | Meizhou Kejia 19%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Meizhou Kejia 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Meizhou Kejia 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 22% | Meizhou Kejia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.98 / Meizhou Kejia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.319 / def 0.927 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.833 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Meizhou Kejia xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia?
Hangzhou Greentown 4 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 59% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (5 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 2 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.55
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.03
1.04
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
3%
37.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.04 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 24W 8D 15L from 47 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 22L across 47 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Meizhou Kejia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 15W 3D 4L from 22 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.13 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 24W 8D 15L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 11W 14D 22L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.18 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
4
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 64%, Meizhou Kejia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Hangzhou Greentown and 59% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 59% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 59% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Meizhou Kejia 4-0 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.98 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.04 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.32 / defence 0.93 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 22% | Meizhou Kejia 19%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 74%, Meizhou Kejia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.