Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 82% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 6W 1D 3L at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chengdu Better City, 2 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 48% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 3.25 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.433 / defence 0.825 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.815 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.388. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — their λ of 3.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Chengdu Better City games / 46 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 82% | Draw 11% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.22 | Draw 9.09 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (82%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Chengdu Better City 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 82% | Draw 11% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 58% | xG Chengdu Better City 3.25 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.433 / def 0.825 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.815 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.25
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
58%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Chengdu Better City 4 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 82% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (5 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.43x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 3.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
82%
1.23
11%
8.75
7%
14.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.25
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
4.19
0.93
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.23
82%
Home win
8.75
11%
Draw
14.39
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
4%
25.89
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 3.25 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.93 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 33W 19D 12L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.00 PPG from 32 outings (18W 10D 4L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 11W 6D 15L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 12L in their last 64 games (1.84 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.00 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2024, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 53%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Chengdu Better City and 66% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Chengdu Better City's games and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 66% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 3.25 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.93 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.43 / defence 0.82 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.81 / defence 1.43, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 82% | Draw 11% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 82%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 50%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.