Changchun Yatai 5-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai host Qingdao Jonoon at Changchun Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Changchun Sports Center Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Changchun Yatai) versus 0.90 (Qingdao Jonoon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Qingdao Jonoon 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 60% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.14 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.886 / defence 1.024 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.659 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.388. Data: 46 Changchun Yatai games / 46 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 29%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.14 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.886 / def 1.024 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.659 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Qingdao Jonoon xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Changchun Yatai 5 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 40% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (3 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Jonoon's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.22
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.07
0.94
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.94 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 16L across 30 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.30 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 0W 4D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.13 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.53 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 2-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 73%, Qingdao Jonoon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Changchun Yatai) and 33% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Changchun Yatai's games and 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Changchun Yatai run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Qingdao Jonoon 5-0 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.14 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.66 / defence 0.81, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 29%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 50%, Qingdao Jonoon 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.