Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Friday 14 February 2025
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
Twelve fixtures cleared the bar on Friday 14 February 2025. Boavista vs Estrela sits top on 72% in the Primeira Liga. The shortlist runs from 72% down to 56%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
Ligue 2 supplies four of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.
Of the twelve fixtures on this list that have since finished, six landed the under 2.5 goals market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Primeira Liga · Portugal
72%
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
68%
Ligue 2 · France
68%
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
65%
Premier Division · Ireland
64%
Ligue 2 · France
63%
Ligue 2 · France
63%
Premier Division · Ireland
63%
Ligue 2 · France
60%
Serie B · Italy
58%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
56%
Serie A · Italy
56%
Showing top 12 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Under 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Friday 14 February 2025?
twelve fixtures met the criteria, led by Boavista vs Estrela at 72% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.